The June Canadian Dollar opened steady yesterday and zigzagged higher for most of the day to finally settle +22 bp at a 9-1/4 month high settlement at 6518. CDM posted a 9-1/4 month high at 6521 and a low at 6486. The 9-day RSI rose to 85.1 from the previous session's 82.4 where it is overbought. Both the short-term and intermediate-term trends are bullish as the contract has posted a 9-1/4 month high and high settlement yesterday. The long-term trend is bearish as the Canadian dollar has been in a bear channel since Jan on 2000 on the weekly nearest chart. Primary resistance levels for CDM are: 6521, 6533, 6593, and 6700. Primary support levels for CDM are: 6486, 6396, 6355, 6277, 6248, and 6235. Theoretical basis for today: +3 IMM bp.
SUPPORT/RESISTANCE LEVELS CASH -- US DOLLAR-CANADIAN DOLLAR
1.6193 All-time high (Jan 21) 1.6121 3-3/4 month high (Feb 26) 1.6119 All-time high settle (Jan 21) 1.6023 2-3/4 month high (Apr 1) 1.5988 1-1/2 month high (Apr 9) 1.5722 3-week high (May 8) 1.5710 3-week high settle (May 8) 1.5405 Yesterday's high *1.5332 9-1/4 month low sttl (Wed 2pm) 1.5328 9-1/4 month low (Yesterday) 1.5249 10-1/4 month low (Aug 7) 1.5069 15-3/4 month low (July 3) 1.4901 1-1/2 year low (Jan 3) 1.4687 1-3/4 year low (9/1/00) 1.4631 23-1/2 month low (7/24/00) 1.4629 2-year low (6/19/00 1.4320 4-year low (1/27/00) 1.4048 4-1/2 year low (3/13/98) 1.3665 4-3/4 year low (7/15/97) 1.3617 5-year low (5/21/97) 1.3346 5-1/2 year low (1/22/97) 1.3265 8-year low (11/8/96)
RETRACEMENTS-- US DOLLAR-CANADIAN DOLLAR
2-year 1873 bp upmove from 1.4320 (1/27/00) to 1.6193 (1/21/02)
46% retrace (Yesterday's low) 1.5328
HIGH 1/4 1/3 .382 1/2 .618 2/3 3/4 LOW 1.6193 1.5725 1.5569 1.5478 1.5257 1.5035 1.4944 1.4788 1.4320
SUPPORT/RESISTANCE LEVELS -- CANADIAN DOLLAR FUTURES (CDM02)
6992 3-1/4 yr high wkly nrst (1/24/00 H00) 6922 1-1/2 yr high wkly nrst (4/3/00 M00) 6700 Contract high & high settle (1/30/01) 6593 15-month high (7/3 & 7/5/01) 6533 10-1/4 month high (8/6/01) 6521 9-1/4 month high (Yesterday) *6518 9-1/4 month high settle (Wed) 6508 Pivot Point 6491 Approx. 1.5400 USD/CD 6486 Yesterday's low 6396 1-week low (Last Tuesday) 6387 30-day moving average 6366 3-week low settle (May 8) 6355 3-week low (May 8) 6347 50-day moving average 6334 200-day moving average 6305 100-day moving average 6277 1-1/4 month low (Apr 15) 6255 1-3/4 month low settle (Apr 9) 6250 2-3/4 month low settle (Apr 1) 6248 1-1/2 month low (Apr 9) 6235 2-3/4 month low (Apr 1 & Mar 1) 6207 3-3/4 month low settle (Feb 26) 6202 Contract low settle (Jan 17 & 25) 6200 3-3/4 month low (Feb 26) 6190 4-month low (Jan 28) 6180 Contract low (Jan 18)