TECHNICAL PICTURE -- JAPANESE YEN

Thu 5/23/02

     The June Japanese Yen posted a 5-1/2 month high of 8109 and an overall low 8005 during Tuesday night's Globex session. JYM opened lower yesterday morning and traded sideways for most of the day to finally settle -20 bp at 8062 where it completed a bearish hook reversal. JYM posted an IMM high at 8072 and an IMM low at 8047. The 9-day RSI fell to 72.6 from the previous session's 76.2 where it is high. The short-term trend is bullish with yesterday's 5-1/2 month high. The intermediate-term trend is neutral as the contract has been in a basing pattern since late January. The long-term trend remains bearish as JYM continues to post new lows, and the cash Yen posted a new 3-1/2 year high at 135.14 on Jan 31. Primary resistance levels for JYM are: 8109 and 8219. Primary support levels for JYM are: 8005, 7814, 7777, 7761, 7576, and 7501. Theoretical basis for today: - 10 IMM bp.

SUPPORT/RESISTANCE LEVELS -- CASH DOLLAR-YEN

147.62  11-3/4 year high (8/11/98)
135.14  3-1/2 year high (Jan 31)
135.02  3-1/2 year high settle (Jan 31)
135.01  3-3/4 month high (Feb 11)
134.98  3-1/4 month high (Feb 27)
133.84  2-3/4 month high (Apr 1)
132.39  1-1/2 month high (Apr 15)
129.07  3-week high (May 9)
128.77  3-week high settle (May 8)
125.06  Yesterday's high
*124.21 Previous settle (Wed 2pm)
124.10  5-1/2 month lo settle (Tue 2pm)
123.53  5-1/2 month low (Yesterday)
122.83  6-month low (Nov 30)
119.75  6-3/4 month low (Nov 12)
115.83  14-3/4 month low (9/20/01)
114.36  1-1/4 year low (2/6/01)
113.55  1-1/3 year low (1/4/01)
106.87  1-1/2 year low (11/3/00)
104.77  1-3/4 year low (9/14/00)
103.93  2-year low (6/23/00)
102.07  2-1/4 year low (3/31/00)
101.33  6-1/2 year low (12/23/99)
 96.04  6-3/4 year low (8/24/95)
 79.78  All-time low (4/19/95)

RETRACEMENTS-- CASH DOLLAR-YEN
3-1/2 year 46.29 point downmove from 147.62 (8/11/98) to 101.33 (12/23/99)       73% retrace (Jan 31 high) 135.14

HIGH   3/4    2/3    .618   1/2    .382   1/3    1/4    LOW
147.62 136.05 132.19 129.94 124.47 119.01 116.76 112.90 101.33

SUPPORT/RESISTANCE LEVELS--YEN FUTURES (JYM02)

8776  Contract high & high settle (9/20/01)
8430  7-1/2 month high (Nov 8)
8426  7-1/2 month high settle (Nov 8)
8219  6-month high & high settle (Nov 28)
8109  5-1/2 month high (Yesterday-Glbx)
8082  5-1/2 month high settle (Tuesday)
8072  Yesterday's IMM high
*8062 Previous settle (Wednesday)
8058  Pivot Point
8047  Yesterday's IMM low
8005  Yesterday's overall low (Globex)
8001  200-day moving average
7814  Last Friday's low
7804  30-day average
7782  3-week low settle (May 8)
7777  1-week low (Last Tue)
7761  3-week low (May 9)
7731  50-day moving average
7663  100-day moving average
7576  1-1/4 month low (Apr 15)
7525  2-1/2 month lo sttl (Apr 1 & Apr 2)
7501  2-1/2 month low (Apr 1)
7469  Contract low settle (Feb 26)
7449  Contract low (Feb 27)
7371  3-yr low weekly nrst (9/21/98 Z98)

RETRACEMENT--YEN FUTURES (JYM02)
8-month 1327 bp downmove from 8776 (9/20/01) to 7449 (2/27/02)       50% retrace (Yesterday's high) 8109

HIGH   3/4    2/3    .618   1/2    .382   1/3    1/4    LOW
8776   8444   8334   8269   8113   7956   7891   7784   7449


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