TECHNICAL PICTURE -- T-BONDS

Thu 5/23/02

T-BOND OVERVIEW -- USM posted an overall low of 101-04 during Tuesday night's session. The June 30-year T-Bond opened higher yesterday and traded sideways to higher the entire session before settling +18 ticks at a 1-1/2 week high settlement of 101-26. USM posted a 1-1/2 week high of 101-29 and posted a pit session low of 101-14. The cash bond settled +15 ticks at a 1-week high settlement of 96-13 (5.629%). The 9-day RSI rose to 56.8 from 51.2 where it is neutral. The short term trend is neutral with last Tuesday's 1-month low and low settlement and the May 1st 2-1/2 month high. The intermediate term trend is neutral with USM near the top of a 5-month range. The long term trend is bearish with the contract posting a contract low on Dec 17th.

MOVING AVERAGES -- 200>Settle>20>18>30>3>4>100=5=10>9>50 The oscillator situation was bullish yesterday with the 3-9 day crossing up into positive territory and the 5-20 day oscillator moving higher in negative territory.

VOLUME/OPEN INTEREST -- Yesterday's estimated volume was 210,000. Tuesday's volume was 213,430. Open interest fell -279 contracts to 452,888.

SUPPORT/RESISTANCE -- The primary resistance levels for USM are: 101- 29, 102-02, 102-06, 103-00, 103-04, and 103-30. The primary support levels are: 101-04, 100-04, 99-27, 99-19, and 97-22.


BASIS DATA: Cash 5-3/8% bond - (USM02)(.9152) Basis: 103, -2. SUPPORT/RESISTANCE LEVELS -- US FUTURES (USM02)

112-19  All-time high (USZ01, Nov 1)
110-10  Contract high (Nov 1)
109-10  Contract high settle (Nov 7)
105-24  5-3/8% cash equivalent (BASIS@103)
104-07  5-3/4 month high (Nov 15 & 19)
104-01  5-3/4 month high (Dec 4)
103-30  5-1/4 month high (Feb 22))
103-25  5-1/2% cash equivalent (BASIS@103)
103-16  5-1/4 month high settle (Feb 22)
103-04  2-1/2 month high (May 1)
103-00  3-week high (May 3)
102-23  2-1/2 month high settle (May 3)
102-06  2-week high (May 10)
102-02  Last Monday's high & 200-day average
101-29  1-1/2 week high (Yesterday)
101-28  5-5/8% cash equivalent (BASIS@103)
*101-26 1-1/2 week high settle (Wednesday)
101-20  Pivot Point
101-14  Yesterday's pit session low
101-09  3-day average
101-04  Yesterday's overall low (a/c/e)
101-00  100, 10, and 5-day averages
100-16  Tuesday's low
100-14  50-day average
100-04  Monday's low & 1-month low settle (Last Tue)
100-00  5-3/4% cash equivalent (BASIS@103)
 99-27  1-month low (Last Tuesday)
 99-19  1-1/2 month low (Apr 18)
 98-06  5-7/8% cash equivalent (BASIS@103)
 97-26  11-1/2 month low settle (Mar 14)
 97-22  2-month low (Mar 28) & Contract low settle (5/31/01)
 97-16  2-1/4 month low (Mar 21)
 97-06  5-1/4 month low (Mar 15)
 96-31  Contract low (Dec 17)

RETRACEMENTS-- US FUTURES (USM02)
6-1/2 month 13-11/32 point downmove from 110-10 (11/1/01) to 96-31 (12/17/01)       52% retrace (2/22/02 high) 103-30

HIGH   3/4    2/3    .618   1/2    .382   1/3    1/4    LOW
110-10 106-31 105-28 105-07 103-20 102-02 101-13 100-10 96-31

SUPPORT/RESISTANCE LEVELS -- CASH 30-YEAR T-BOND (5-3/8% 02/31)

Synthetic data used prior to first day of trading on 2/09/01.
111-11  All-time high (Nov 1) (4.661%)
109-25  4-3/4% cash yield
109-03  All-time high settle (Nov 7) (4.794%)
107-23  4-7/8% cash yield
105-23  5-00% cash yield
103-24  5-1/8% cash yield
102-21  5-3/4 month high (Dec 4) (5.197%)
101-27  5-1/4% cash yield
100-30  5-1/2 month high (Jan 16) (5.311%)
100-27  4-1/4 month high (Feb 22) (5.317%)
100-00  5-3/8% cash yield
 98-17  2-3/4 month high (Mar 6) (5.477%)
 98-06  5-1/2% cash yield
 97-28  2-1/2 month high (May 3) (5.523%)
96-24  1-1/2 week high (Last Monday & May 10) (5.604%)
96-17  1-week high (Yesterday) (5.620%)
96-15  5-5/8% cash yield
*96-13 1-week high settle (Wednesday) (5.629%)
95-26  Yesterday's low (5.672%)
94-24  5-3/4% cash yield
94-23  1-1/2 month low settle (Last Tuesday) (5.753%)
94-14  1-1/2 month low (Last Wednesday & Tuesday) (5.774%)
93-23  11-3/4 month low settlement (Mar 20) (5.827%)
93-08  2-month low (Apr 2) (5.863%)
93-04  12-month low (Mar 15) (5.872%)
93-03  5-7/8% cash yield
92-19  1-1/3 year low (5/15/01) (5.912%)
91-15  6-00% cash yield

RETRACEMENTS-- CASH 30-YEAR T-BOND Note: Retracements calculated from
cash bond yield, not price. 6-1/2 month 18-07/32 point downmove from 111-11 (4.661%) (11/1/01) to 93-04 (5.872%) (3/15/02)       29% retrace (5/3/02) 97-28 (5.523%)

HIGH   3/4    2/3    .618   1/2    .382   1/3    1/4    LOW
111-11 106-08 104-21 103-24 101-19 99-16  98-21  97-08  93-04
4.661% 4.964% 5.065% 5.124% 5.267% 5.409% 5.468% 5.569% 5.872%


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