T-BOND OVERVIEW -- USM posted an overall low of 101-04 during Tuesday night's session. The June 30-year T-Bond opened higher yesterday and traded sideways to higher the entire session before settling +18 ticks at a 1-1/2 week high settlement of 101-26. USM posted a 1-1/2 week high of 101-29 and posted a pit session low of 101-14. The cash bond settled +15 ticks at a 1-week high settlement of 96-13 (5.629%). The 9-day RSI rose to 56.8 from 51.2 where it is neutral. The short term trend is neutral with last Tuesday's 1-month low and low settlement and the May 1st 2-1/2 month high. The intermediate term trend is neutral with USM near the top of a 5-month range. The long term trend is bearish with the contract posting a contract low on Dec 17th.
MOVING AVERAGES -- 200>Settle>20>18>30>3>4>100=5=10>9>50 The oscillator situation was bullish yesterday with the 3-9 day crossing up into positive territory and the 5-20 day oscillator moving higher in negative territory.
VOLUME/OPEN INTEREST -- Yesterday's estimated volume was 210,000. Tuesday's volume was 213,430. Open interest fell -279 contracts to 452,888.
SUPPORT/RESISTANCE -- The primary resistance levels for USM are: 101- 29, 102-02, 102-06, 103-00, 103-04, and 103-30. The primary support levels are: 101-04, 100-04, 99-27, 99-19, and 97-22.
BASIS DATA: Cash 5-3/8% bond - (USM02)(.9152) Basis: 103, -2.
SUPPORT/RESISTANCE LEVELS -- US FUTURES (USM02)
112-19 All-time high (USZ01, Nov 1) 110-10 Contract high (Nov 1) 109-10 Contract high settle (Nov 7) 105-24 5-3/8% cash equivalent (BASIS@103) 104-07 5-3/4 month high (Nov 15 & 19) 104-01 5-3/4 month high (Dec 4) 103-30 5-1/4 month high (Feb 22)) 103-25 5-1/2% cash equivalent (BASIS@103) 103-16 5-1/4 month high settle (Feb 22) 103-04 2-1/2 month high (May 1) 103-00 3-week high (May 3) 102-23 2-1/2 month high settle (May 3) 102-06 2-week high (May 10) 102-02 Last Monday's high & 200-day average 101-29 1-1/2 week high (Yesterday) 101-28 5-5/8% cash equivalent (BASIS@103) *101-26 1-1/2 week high settle (Wednesday) 101-20 Pivot Point 101-14 Yesterday's pit session low 101-09 3-day average 101-04 Yesterday's overall low (a/c/e) 101-00 100, 10, and 5-day averages 100-16 Tuesday's low 100-14 50-day average 100-04 Monday's low & 1-month low settle (Last Tue) 100-00 5-3/4% cash equivalent (BASIS@103) 99-27 1-month low (Last Tuesday) 99-19 1-1/2 month low (Apr 18) 98-06 5-7/8% cash equivalent (BASIS@103) 97-26 11-1/2 month low settle (Mar 14) 97-22 2-month low (Mar 28) & Contract low settle (5/31/01) 97-16 2-1/4 month low (Mar 21) 97-06 5-1/4 month low (Mar 15) 96-31 Contract low (Dec 17)
RETRACEMENTS-- US FUTURES (USM02)
6-1/2 month 13-11/32 point downmove from 110-10 (11/1/01) to 96-31
(12/17/01)
52% retrace (2/22/02 high) 103-30
HIGH 3/4 2/3 .618 1/2 .382 1/3 1/4 LOW 110-10 106-31 105-28 105-07 103-20 102-02 101-13 100-10 96-31
SUPPORT/RESISTANCE LEVELS -- CASH 30-YEAR T-BOND (5-3/8% 02/31)
Synthetic data used prior to first day of trading on 2/09/01. 111-11 All-time high (Nov 1) (4.661%) 109-25 4-3/4% cash yield 109-03 All-time high settle (Nov 7) (4.794%) 107-23 4-7/8% cash yield 105-23 5-00% cash yield 103-24 5-1/8% cash yield 102-21 5-3/4 month high (Dec 4) (5.197%) 101-27 5-1/4% cash yield 100-30 5-1/2 month high (Jan 16) (5.311%) 100-27 4-1/4 month high (Feb 22) (5.317%) 100-00 5-3/8% cash yield 98-17 2-3/4 month high (Mar 6) (5.477%) 98-06 5-1/2% cash yield 97-28 2-1/2 month high (May 3) (5.523%) 96-24 1-1/2 week high (Last Monday & May 10) (5.604%) 96-17 1-week high (Yesterday) (5.620%) 96-15 5-5/8% cash yield *96-13 1-week high settle (Wednesday) (5.629%) 95-26 Yesterday's low (5.672%) 94-24 5-3/4% cash yield 94-23 1-1/2 month low settle (Last Tuesday) (5.753%) 94-14 1-1/2 month low (Last Wednesday & Tuesday) (5.774%) 93-23 11-3/4 month low settlement (Mar 20) (5.827%) 93-08 2-month low (Apr 2) (5.863%) 93-04 12-month low (Mar 15) (5.872%) 93-03 5-7/8% cash yield 92-19 1-1/3 year low (5/15/01) (5.912%) 91-15 6-00% cash yield
RETRACEMENTS-- CASH 30-YEAR T-BOND Note: Retracements calculated from
cash bond yield, not price.
6-1/2 month 18-07/32 point downmove from 111-11 (4.661%) (11/1/01) to
93-04 (5.872%) (3/15/02)
29% retrace (5/3/02) 97-28 (5.523%)
HIGH 3/4 2/3 .618 1/2 .382 1/3 1/4 LOW 111-11 106-08 104-21 103-24 101-19 99-16 98-21 97-08 93-04 4.661% 4.964% 5.065% 5.124% 5.267% 5.409% 5.468% 5.569% 5.872%